The Republican Party is a mess, let’s face it. Gone are the classic conservatism of the late great Ronald Reagan. In its place is a rambling ethic of blatant hypocrisy and marginal conspiracy theories. But what makes the affair troubling for the troubled Producers of sundials (NASDAQ:SNDL) is that Democrats are arguably worse. In my opinion, much worse.
This puts SNDL’s stock in a bind.
Of course, a constraint is exactly what Sundial Growers doesn’t need to be in. The SNDL stock chart reads like a Matryoshka pain doll. In one day (during the October 4 session), SNDL fell 6%. In the past five days, he has bled 11%. Over the past month, it has fallen 16%. And in the last semester, the equity unit has truly hemorrhaged 41%.
However, on an annual basis, the SNDL stock is up 15%. This, according to my colleague Chris Markoch, is the nature of stocks quoted in cents. In his opinion, Sundial Growers is within a few chapters of a new story. As long as this Chapter is not a Chapter 11 bankruptcy, it should be considered a win at this point.
Still, many investors have undoubtedly considered the prospect of federal legalization of marijuana as the ultimate catalyst for SNDL stocks. Of course, everything can change if this were to catapult into the wild streets of Washington. As Markoch said, legalization is probably a matter of when, not if.
But before you get too excited, he also explained that no one knows for sure when “when”. Previously, many believed that a blue wave in the 2020 election could usher in the green paradigm shift.
But I don’t think that will happen now. Not only does President Joe Biden not want such controversial historic legislation on his legacy, he has suffered the nightmare of a reputation blow.
SNDL Stock must survive to see Trump return
I’m sure most reasonable Americans, regardless of their political orientation, will agree with me that the public appreciates the efforts of the Biden administration to guide us through the difficult waters of the novel coronavirus pandemic. No, that’s not the perfect answer. But there is no real model for such a crisis.
However, the nation’s pulse suggests the electorate is ready for a change. So early in his administration, Biden is one of the less popular presidents, with only President Donald Trump to spare his blushes. Honestly, I don’t expect Biden to run a successful 2024 campaign, which likely means SNDL’s stock is dependent on a future second term from former President Trump.
Yes, I reject Vice President Kamala Harris’ chances if Biden steps down. Harris has a bad reputation with the independents, an area where robust Trumpism can easily turn the tide. So that begs the question: What does Trump think about the legalization of marijuana?
It is difficult for the SNDL stock. Although Trump is a pro-business guy, he’s also a law and order guy. So cannabis advocates find themselves in the same contradictory ecosystem as the anti-vaccine opposing vaccine that Trump himself led through Operation Warp Speed.
Further away, Rolling stone argues that the Trump administration has backed policies and appointed cabinet members that have made it difficult “for those in the cannabis industry to thrive.” Thus, it could be a repeat scenario under a second term, thus damaging the prospects of the SNDL title.
Then again, Trump doesn’t seem like a person to let the past go by. We never know. He could fully legalize marijuana just for despite his previous political appointments which largely opposed the deprogramming of cannabis.
Moreover, as long as Trump does not impose the Covid-19 (or any) vaccine, it is a contradiction his supporters will likely accept.
Red for Green
Indeed, I would go so far as to say that all of his supporters care about getting the Trump train back to Washington. To get there, he could offer a few nuggets to independents and disgruntled Democrats, such as engaging in decriminalization as well as deprogramming weed.
And I realize that those in the center and left aren’t sitting at home 24/7 smoking a joint. Trump will have to throw more nuggets at the crowd. But that’s also the point: Trump just needs to throw some nuggets while Biden needs a full makeover, something he doesn’t seem able to do.
Therefore, if you think The Donald will be good for cannabis, you might want to wait closer to the 2024 election before placing a huge bet on SNDL stock. This could be a great contrarian forecast, that Trump will win a second term and that he, not Biden, will be the Green Savior.
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As of the date of publication, Josh Enomoto did not hold (directly or indirectly) any position in the securities mentioned in this article. The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author, submitted to InvestorPlace.com Publication guidelines.
Former senior business analyst for Sony Electronics, Josh Enomoto has helped negotiate major contracts with Fortune Global 500 companies. Over the past several years, he has provided unique and essential information for the investment markets, as well as for various other sectors, including law, construction management and health.